Popular calls for retaliation against Israel for the assassinations of Hizbullah military strategist Fuad Shukr and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh have fuelled fears that reprisals could be the start of an all-out war.
Consequently, movements supported by Iran are seeking to restore deterrence with measured actions that won’t draw a devastating response from US-backed regional superpower Israel.
Bludgeoned in Gaza and besieged in the West Bank by Israel, Hamas is in no position to exact vengeance, especially since Israel killed its military chief, Mohammed Deif, on July 13th. This leaves retaliation for the assassinations of Shukr and Haniyeh to Hizbullah, the Iran-backed militant group based in Lebanon, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units and Yemen’s Houthis.
During Shukr’s funeral on Thursday, Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel it must “expect anger and retribution”. He pledged to continue cross-border attacks on Israel and “pressure Israel to stop its aggression in Gaza. The only solution is to end the war in Gaza.”
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Nasrallah understands that crisis-ridden Lebanon cannot sustain another war with Israel like the 2006 conflict triggered by a Hizbullah attack on an Israeli army border patrol. To avert Israeli retaliation against infrastructure and population centres, Hizbullah could mount a calculated operation against a military base.
Israel’s strike on Shukr took place in a Hizbullah Beirut stronghold, where Israel killed Haniyeh’s deputy Saleh al-Arouri in January. Hizbullah replied by attacking the strategic Mount Meron military air traffic control base in northern Israel without provoking a major response.
Israel’s elimination of Haniyeh in Tehran while he was a guest at the inauguration of Iran’s president Mahmoud Pezeshkian may have strangled at birth Pezeshkian’s plan to cultivate ties with the West. He aimed to restart talks on reviving the 2015 deal limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for relief from sanctions that have undermined Iran’s economy. Pezeshkian’s domestic reform programme could also be scrapped by conservative hardliners who opposed his election. This could risk renewing popular protests staged in 2022 after Mahsa Amini was arrested by morality police for allegedly failing to wear her headscarf as mandated by law.
Like Hizbullah, the Revolutionary Guards must exercise restraint. To warn Israel against attacking Iran, the guards mounted in April a well-advertised mass drone and missile strike against Israel following its air strike that killed eight Revolutionary Guard officers at the Iranian consulate in Damascus. Israel’s missile defence systems and allies shot down 99 per cent of the weapons. Since there would be no warning if the guards were to repeat such an attack in coming days, it would ensure massive retaliation from Israel.
After Washington was informed by Israel of its strike on Beirut, the US struck a base of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units near Babylon, killing drone specialists from pro-Iranian factions. US officials described it as an action of self-defence. While fear of retaliation could make the mobilisation units reluctant to renew attacks on Iraqi bases hosting US troops, they could insist the government order immediate withdrawal of 2,500 US troops remaining in the country.
Since the US planes which carried out the attack apparently flew from airfields in Kuwait, its rulers could come under pressure to ban attacks on Arab neighbours from the Emirates’ soil.
On July 20th, Israel retaliated against a Yemeni Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv which killed an Israeli by bombing the Houthis’ Hodeidah port and setting fire to fuel storage tanks. The Hodeidah attack plus the assassinations could push the Houthis to increase strikes on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Mounted to put pressure for an end to the Gaza war, the attacks have boosted popular support for the Houthis and reduced traffic through the Suez Canal, cutting shipping activity at Israel’s port of Eilat by 85 per cent, according to Reuters.
Caught between Israel and antagonists, regional rulers could be expected to lobby Washington to insist Israel end the Gaza war, which is seen as the cause of assassinations, soaring tensions and spill over.
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